Guide M2 and social financing growth rate is significantly higher than last year’s experts: will cut the standard rate
On May 22, the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened, and Premier Li Keqiang gave a government work report.On the basis of reasserting “stable monetary policy needs to be more flexible and appropriate”, the report proposes to comprehensively use quasi-reduced interest rates, refinancing and other means to guide the growth of the supply of broad money (Note: M2) and the scale of social financing.year.”Significantly higher than last year” is a new formulation of the annual government work report. Another new formulation is to “innovate monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, promote the promotion of enterprises to facilitate access to loans, and push interest rates to continue to fall.”Experts believe that there is still room for further reductions in the standard and interest rate.In this regard, Dong Ximiao, the chief expert of Xinwang Bank and the chief representative of Zhongguancun Internet Finance Research Institute, told the sauna and Yeewang that the growth rate of M2 in April reached 11.1% is already significantly higher than last year and may be higher next.For the first time, the prudent monetary policy of experts means that monetary policy will not implement quantitative easing as the United States does.Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Phytosanitary Investment, and chairman of China ‘s Chief Economist Forum, told Sauna, Yewang that the “leading the broad money supply and the scale of social financing has grown significantly faster than last year”.In line with expectations, in April credit, the growth rate of social financing has been significantly improved, once M2 growth rate reached 11.1% is expected to increase further in the future, and may reach 12% or higher.The growth rate of social financing should be increased accordingly, which may reach 13% -14%, which is a significant increase from the number growth last year.He further stated that he did not expect the “monetary policy to brake” view in the near-term market, pressure from the external environment increased, the economy to maintain a stable operation, and weak conversion to obtain financing, etc., all of which required further financing scale.Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that “the generalized money supply and the scale of social financing have significantly increased over last year.” This means further expansion of the money supply.Repurchase, MLF (middle-term lending facility) operation and other tools to cut interest rates, the next step of quasi-rate reduction and interest rate cuts are still within the expected range, and the market does not need to worry about liquidity.Lianping’s analysis of interest rate cuts and quasi-accuracy standards suggests that in order for banks to make better profits for the market economy, similar to reverse repurchases, MLF (medium-term borrowing facility) operating rates may further decline, and it does not rule out that the benchmark interest rate will be certain in the near futureThe possibility of a certain reduction.From the perspective of the deposit reserve ratio, three rounds of RRR cuts have been carried out at the beginning of this year, and the current large banks are 12.5%, small and medium banks 9.At 5%, the industry ‘s overall expected average level is 10.4%.Lian Ping believes that the average deposit reserve ratio of the banking industry may increase to less than 10% in the future.”The issuance of special national bonds and local special bonds requires someone to buy, and one of the purchasers is a commercial bank.While banks have to support the real economy and buy bonds, in this case, it is likely to further reduce the reserve ratio appropriately to match the issuance of special national bonds and local special bonds. The range and frequency will not be as great as they were a while ago.”Lian Ping said.Regarding the requirements of “innovating the monetary policy tool that directly reaches the real economy, gradually promoting enterprises to facilitate access to loans, and pushing the interest rate to continue to fall”, Dong Ximiao analyzed that there have been difficulties in debt issuance by some private enterprises before, thus providing some debt-supported financing toolsThere may be innovation in this area.Wen Bin, chief analyst of China Minsheng Bank, believes that different periods can be adopted to expand the scope of collateral, moderately increase the mortgage rate and other methods, innovate monetary policy tools, provide liquidity support to financial institutions, and guide capital to key areas and weak alternativesTo realize the conversion of wide currency to wide credit.Pan and Lin are not enough, the key for enterprises to obtain loans and promote the continued decline in interest rates is also the smooth flow of the monetary policy system. It is not ruled out that supervision may guide funds to the real economy through window guidance and other methods. If the supply is in place, but the fundsHowever, it is deposited in the financial system, but there may be problems.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao editor Wang Jinyu proofread Chen Diyan